More

    Bitcoin Historical Volatility Fractal Points To Brewing Bullish Explosion

    Bitcoin price has been trapped in a tightening trading range and has barely moved in weeks. The top cryptocurrency by market cap has been boring compared to its characteristically volatile self. 
    Looking back at the asset’s historic volatility, a fractal pattern could be forming that suggests the price per BTC is about to blast off to unprecedented heights. 
    Fractals And How History Doesn’t Rhyme But It Often Repeats
    Mark Twain said that “history doesn’t repeat, but if often rhymes.” The statement best explains the theory behind repeating price patterns called fractals.
    Related Reading | Bitcoin Ready For Display Of Strength, But Which Direction Will It Break
    These fractals appear similar to another point in historic price action, and help analysts to predict and anticipate future market behavior. The results can be mixed, as rarely do things play out exactly the same. This fact has earned fractals a negative reputation, however, even in Bitcoin there is some specific behavior that can be expected.

    Every cycle looks similar by comparison when zooming out | Source: BLX on TradingView.com
    For example, each major breakout past all-time high resulted in a parabolic uptrend and the visual comparisons are undeniable. The most recent uptrend of which has come to a screeching halt, turning a stumble into a full-on 50% or more collapse.
    While the market ponders if the bull trend is kaput, even technicals have become mixed. There is a handful of doji candles on the weekly, a tight trading range, and volatility has dropped to an important level. All of these signs point to a potential reaction, and if “history” has anything to do with it, the volatility should be released to the upside.
    What Historical Volatility Says About The Bitcoin Bull Run Finale
    All throughout nature there are fractal-like patterns that repeat again and again. Price action in financial assets commonly exhibit such repeating behavior, such as cycling between bear and bull markets.
    Bitcoin is no different, and is known for patterns that appear again and again. Looking back at the Historical Volatility indicator on weekly timeframes, we may have one of those instances brewing.

    Mid-cycle consolidation then kicks volatility into high gear | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
    During the previous bull market, which is clear the current cycle isn’t quite following in terms of “only up” price action, after one of the largest shakeouts, volatility finally held above a key level and kickstarted the last leg of the bull market.
    Anyone who had assumed it was the peak of the cycle, would have been left in the dust as Bitcoin churned out another 900%+ of bull market ROI and volatility went parabolic.
    Related Reading | Bitcoin Trend Strength Indicator Suggests Bull Run Isn’t Yet Over
    Bitcoin is back and trying to hold above a very similar support line, and if successful, should send volatility back along a parabolic curve along with price action. That would put the top of the current bull cycle at around December, which – historically – has marked a significant top or bottom every year since 2017.
    Still think history doesn’t rhyme?
    Follow @TonySpilotro on Twitter or via the TonyTrades Telegram. Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.
    Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

    Related articles

    Comments

    LEAVE A REPLY

    Please enter your comment!
    Please enter your name here

    Share article

    Latest articles

    Newsletter

    Subscribe to stay updated.

    bitcoin
    Bitcoin (BTC) $ 41,404.00
    ethereum
    Ethereum (ETH) $ 2,457.00
    tether
    Tether (USDT) $ 0.999312
    binance-coin
    Binance Coin (BNB) $ 330.29
    cardano
    Cardano (ADA) $ 1.30
    xrp
    XRP (XRP) $ 0.744415
    usd-coin
    USD Coin (USDC) $ 1.00
    dogecoin
    Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.207937
    polkadot
    Polkadot (DOT) $ 16.40
    binance-usd
    Binance USD (BUSD) $ 1.00
    uniswap
    Uniswap (UNI) $ 21.26
    bitcoin-cash
    Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 540.55
    litecoin
    Litecoin (LTC) $ 143.15
    chainlink
    Chainlink (LINK) $ 21.55
    solana
    Solana (SOL) $ 34.47
    wrapped-bitcoin
    Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 41,349.00
    stellar
    Stellar (XLM) $ 0.286594
    matic-network
    Polygon (MATIC) $ 1.05
    ethereum-classic
    Ethereum Classic (ETC) $ 50.64
    theta-token
    Theta Network (THETA) $ 6.08
    internet-computer
    Internet Computer (ICP) $ 42.22
    vechain
    VeChain (VET) $ 0.087692
    dai
    Dai (DAI) $ 0.999851
    compound-usd-coin
    cUSDC (CUSDC) $ 0.022161
    okb
    OKB (OKB) $ 18.35
    filecoin
    Filecoin (FIL) $ 51.78
    cdai
    cDAI (CDAI) $ 0.021630
    tron
    TRON (TRX) $ 0.063692
    terra-luna
    Terra (LUNA) $ 10.78
    monero
    Monero (XMR) $ 236.02
    aave
    Aave (AAVE) $ 316.74
    eos
    EOS (EOS) $ 4.05
    compound-ether
    cETH (CETH) $ 49.08
    ftx-token
    FTX Token (FTT) $ 34.66
    amp-token
    Amp (AMP) $ 0.073889
    cosmos
    Cosmos (ATOM) $ 12.68
    neo
    NEO (NEO) $ 46.42
    crypto-com-chain
    Crypto.com Coin (CRO) $ 0.127748
    pancakeswap-token
    PancakeSwap (CAKE) $ 15.76
    shiba-inu
    Shiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000006
    the-graph
    The Graph (GRT) $ 0.616700
    leo-token
    LEO Token (LEO) $ 3.04
    algorand
    Algorand (ALGO) $ 0.837098
    bitcoin-sv
    Bitcoin SV (BSV) $ 139.66
    celsius-degree-token
    Celsius Network (CEL) $ 6.19
    klay-token
    Klaytn (KLAY) $ 1.04
    maker
    Maker (MKR) $ 2,880.74
    tezos
    Tezos (XTZ) $ 3.03
    iota
    IOTA (MIOTA) $ 0.876361
    axie-infinity
    Axie Infinity (AXS) $ 43.09